Table 4: Results of the sensitivity and scenario analyses: difference in % versus the market price.

PHN Hunter syndrome CF CF PBC SMA CLN2 Alpha-man. Lys. Lipo Dys.
Eculizumab Idursulfase Lumacaftor/Ivacaftor Ataluren €200.000 - €800.000
Price €358,000 €600,000 €169,386 €270,000 €38,021 €240,000 €595,971 €800,000 €480,000
Break-even price base case -22%* -44% 157% 6% -19% 150% -25% 0% -6%
Cost of capital 9% -1% -29% 225% 34% 3% 217% -6% 27% 21%
Cost of capital 18% -58% -70% 39% -43% -56% 35% -60% -46% -51%
Include non-Western markets 40% 0% 363% 91% 47% 351% 34% 80% 69%
Reimbursement 80% -41% -58% 183% -20% -39% 88% -44% -25% -29%
Failures: 20% higher -60% -71% 32% -45% -58% 29% -62% -49% -52%
Costs 20% R&D lower -17% -35% 202% 25% -4% 193% -12% 18% 11%
Costs 20% R&D higher -36% -56% 101% -17% -36% 96% -42% -22% -26%
Cost sales 20% lower -29% -41% 174% 13% 13% 167% -21% 7% 0%
Cost sales 20% higher -36% -55% 110% -14% -34% 104% -39% -19% -23%
Delay -37% -55% 107% -14% -34% 102% -40% -19% -25%
Drug price 30% higher 9% -22% 258% 48% 13% 249% 4% 39% 31%
Uptake 60-70-80% -28% -50% 129% -5% -27% 98% -34% -11% -2%
Uptake 70-80-95% -15% -41% 171% 12% -14% 134% -22% 5% 15%

*A positive difference indicates that actual prices are higher than break-even prices and a negative difference indicates that actual prices are lower than break-even prices.