Table 2: The input parameters for the discounted cash flow model.

Model parameter Value
Cost of development (US$ million) US$701 million
Cost pre-clinical US$217 million
Phase I US$84 million
Phase II US$142 million
Phase III US$190 million
Phase IV US$68 million
Years of development & approval 8 years
Population Western markets: 872.5 million
Global markets: 1,670 million
Period of reimbursement 1 year
Net patent period after registration 12 years
Uptake 80% from year 1
Cost of revenue 40%
Hurdle rate 12%
Phase I to II 70% (failure - 30%)
Phase II to III 39% (failure - 61%)
Phase III to FDA approval* 69% (failure - 31%)

*Assumption: Same probability for EMA.