Table 2: Estimated effects of vodka sales on IHD mortality rates, ARIMA analysis.

	vodka sales on IHD mortality rates, ARIMA analysis.				Females
age	model	estimates	SE	P	model	estimates	SE	p
15-29	0,1,1	0,118	0,036	0,003	0,1,1	0.102	0,044	0,300
30-44	0,1,1	0,098	0,090	0,000	0,1,1	0,132	0,030	0,000
45-59	0,1,0	0,081	0,020	0,000	0,1,0	0,082	0,023	0,000
60-74	0,1,0	0,059	0,015	0,001	0,1,0	0,042	0,014	0,006
75+	0,1,0	0,033	0,016	0,005	0,1,0	0,023	0,015	0,132

The general form of non-seasonal ARIMA model is (p,d,q), where p - the order of the autoregressive parameter, d – the order of differencing, and q – the order of the moving average parameter. Q test for residuals are satisfactory in all models.